For an attempt to count it has to make contact with the chopsticks, the launch mount, or the tower.
Failure means exploding, falling down, or being supported by a grid fin or a flap instead of the designated hardpoints.
This market resolves No if this doesn't happen before 2030.
1,000
3.00@creator Does the contact with chopsticks etc. have to be the first contact, or will it also resolve YES if for example the vehicle first comes down on the ground, and then falls over and hits the launch mount?
Does it count if it explodes first (in the air or after hitting the ground) and only parts hit the launch mount/tower?
@dp9000 For the first one, let's say it counts.
For the second one, I worry that it makes the market very hard to resolve if we have to figure out if any small parts plinked off the tower, so let's say that one doesn't count.
Coming back to this, we know more about the trajectory now. After aiming at the gulf, it aims at the land patch next to the tower, and only translates to the arms at the last moment.
I think the criteria I mentioned in the previous comment still hold. If it crashes to the patch of ground, that doesn't count for this market unless it somehow falls over and touches the tower. Shrapnel doesn't count.