Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US? | Manifold

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Basic

5

Ṁ102

2030

26%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

That is, in 2030, will Chinese chip companies offer commercial/enterprise GPUs for sale flops/$ performance within 20% of peak flops/$ of any commercial/enterprise GPU sold by non-Chinese companies?

Conditioning on no doom, of course.

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