If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
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Ṁ50552030
62%
chance
1D
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1M
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Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China
Resolves No otherwise
Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan
"Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.
If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes
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This along with the Taiwan invasion market implies a 26.6% chance of direct conflict with China before 2030. We're in trouble
predictedYES 1y
@PipFoweraker N/A if China does not invade Taiwan by close date. I’ll update the description
Trump is about as unpredictable as MMA.
You’d think though with his hatred of china he’d intervene. But it’s not out of the picture Xi pays him a golf course to turn a blind eye.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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