Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
Premium
41
Ṁ51482029
48%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Feb 6, 11:16am: Will the WHO declare a H5N1 pandemic before 2030? → Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26328/human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026/ is at 17%
Knowing nothing about virology, I'd naively guess the risk pre-year decreases exponentially. Does anyone informed on virology and mutation rates know what the relevant base rate and mechanism is?
Related questions
Related questions
Will the World Health Organization declare another global pandemic before 2030?
46% chance
"Will the World Health Organization officially declare H5N1 a pandemic before December 31st 2025
20% chance
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before the end of 2040?
74% chance
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
50% chance
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
51% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025?
3% chance
Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
31% chance
Will the CDC announce that a "bird flu" (H5N1) epidemic exists anywhere in the United States in 2025?
53% chance
Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1 before 2030?
67% chance
Will the US federal government declare a public health emergency regarding the H5N1 avian influenza virus in 2024?
23% chance