Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
Plus
62
Ṁ73012030
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.
If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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