With Japan recently having raised rates there are no longer any countries left with subzero interest rates. This market runs to 2030, if no country has lowered interest rates by then it resolves to 2030 or later.
Edge cases like dictators lowering rates excessively might be ignored at my discretion.
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3.00For the ECB, the Deposit Facility Rate going negative (just like from 2014-2022) would be enough, correct?
a fiat currency with negative nominal rates has real EV of <-2%/year while bitcoin has a real ev of >4%/year. Or even a basket of commodities probably has a real EV of -1%-0%/year
@JonathanRay You are welcome to bet on that outcome if you think that is the case, but history has a weird tendency of putting once-in-century events right after each other.
@No_ones_ghost All good! The UI is confusing right now
Here, when creating a multiple choice (MC) market, if "One" answer is chosen, the market becomes "linked MC" (the answers add up to 100%), and in that case, picking "You" or "Anyone" for the top question in the screenshot means there's some answer not currently in the market that could theoretically win (if it was added after market creation), so that's what "Other" represents
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00