What will be true of the 2025 UK.gov Autumn Budget?

Ṁ2880

Nov 26

82%

Any Income Tax band frozen

72%

Removal of two-child benefit cap

68%

Any tax increase on gambling

65%

Any change to cash ISAs

62%

Extension of scope of VAT

60%

Increase in minimum wage

60%

Increase in Income Tax (any band)

56%

Any change to Inheritance Tax (IHT)

55%

Increase in Council Tax

52%

Any change to pension tax free lump sum allowance

50%

Any change to higher rate tax relief on pension contributions

45%

Reduction in cash ISA limit

43%

Dividend tax rates aligned with income

42%

Any increase to Corporation Tax

40%

Any Mansion tax

39%

Increase in Fuel Duty

38%

Any wealth tax

33%

Any change to personal allowance

32%

Increase in Employee National Insurance

32%

Any change to stamp duty

Resolves according to the budget speech itself, items will not resolve based on leaks or on information released post-budget, except in the case of a question which is difficult to resolve based on the speech which is clarified in supplementary announcements.

“Any increase in…” questions will resolve on any change that directly increases a tax rate, or changes to e.g. bands or eligibility. May resolve 50% if a change results in some taxpayers paying more and some paying less.

Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Increase in VAT rate" option refers specifically to changes in the VAT rate itself, not to extending the scope of VAT to previously exempt goods.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

10 Comments

22 Holders

116 Trades

Sort by:

https://yougov.co.uk/economy/articles/53245-what-tax-reforms-would-britons-support

bought Ṁ10 YES

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2025/oct/23/rachel-reeves-is-considering-raising-income-tax-to-reduce-deficit-sources-say

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/sep/29/rachel-reeves-confirms-she-no-longer-stands-by-pledge-not-to-raise-taxes

Arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/what-will-be-true-of-the-uk-governm

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/23/reeves-urged-to-take-2p-off-employee-ni-and-add-it-to-income-tax-in-budget

@creator it's been delayed so you may want to extend the deadline

bought Ṁ5 NO

@Noit could easily see this going either way. On the one hand, they need revenue from somewhere and it's a tax they've not promised not to raise, but on the other hand it doesn't raise much and it tends to upset people

@Noit can I clarify: would extending the scope of VAT resolve this YES? E.g. if some good that currently has 0% VAT was given the standard 20%, is that an "increase in VAT"? Or is it only if the standard rate is increased from 20%?

@Fion I was thinking of VAT rate and have amended to distinguish from the option you’ve added

bought Ṁ15 NO

Might improve clarity to mention it's the UK budget in the title in addition to just in the tags, since the site is mostly non-brits

Related questions

Related questions