When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
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Ṁ3729Jan 2
1.6%
In 2024
4%
In 2025 or earlier
14%
In 2026 or earlier
25%
In 2027 or earlier
40%
In 2028 or earlier
56%
In 2029 or earlier
77%
In 2030 or earlier
The market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX Starship spacecraft launches from or lands on the Earth with human astronauts on board. At least one passenger has to survive the maneuver.
I do not bet on my own markets.
Similar question about humans on board at any time in the flight:
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