Will Aella report getting a cavity before 2026-01-01? | Manifold

Will Aella report getting a cavity before 2026-01-01?

Basic

6

Ṁ204

resolved Oct 6

Resolved

N/A

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2023-09-27: don't bet in this market, instead use https://manifold.markets/Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a .

According to this status, @Aella is going to get Lantern Bioworks's magic germs painted on her teeth. Whether she gets any cavities seems like a decent (though noisy) proxy for whether the germs are in fact magic.

On 2026-01-01, I'll ask Aella whether she got a cavity. She answered my DM asking her permission to create this market, so, by induction, I assume she'll answer that one too! (But if she doesn't within a month, I'll resolve the market N/A.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I think this market should be higher than Aella's because it resolves yes based on new cavities after application but before full effectiveness.

arb /Aella/will-i-get-any-new-cavities-after-a

I assume you're going to resolve by asking her at the close date, not rely on her happening to post about it?

How does this resolve if she doesn't post anything and doesn't answer your DMs?

predictedNO

@WilliamEhlhardt Right, I'll ask her; and if she doesn't respond, I'll resolve N/A. Market description updated.

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Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?

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