Will someone clone an extinct animal, such as a mammoth, by the end of the decade? | Manifold

Will someone clone an extinct animal, such as a mammoth, by the end of the decade?

Basic

32

Ṁ3921

2026

56%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The “direwolves” are not really direwolves. They’re modern day wolves who had some genes edited to look a bit more like what we believe direwolves looked like.

In any case, I recommend adding a resolution criteria.

@Lemming To an extent, I agree. The word "clone" in the title does some heavy lifting.

@Lemming Their genes are edited based on actual dire wolf DNA samples, not just to be "a bit more like what ... direwolves looked like." But yes, it's very unclear whether this should count as an actual "extinct animal." Ben S had some sophisticated thoughts on this on his similar market, basically:
- estimate how close the cloned animals' DNA is to historic dire wolves compared to modern wolves
- estimate how much of the remaining DNA gap is functional/load bearing vs junk/unimportant
- estimate whether they could interbreed successfully with historic dire wolves

sold Ṁ10 YES

https://manifold.markets/PBot86/will-someone-clone-an-extinct-anima?r=VmlsbmlzU2FuaWpz

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 65% order

https://manifold.markets/PBot86/will-someone-clone-an-extinct-anima?r=VmlsbmlzU2FuaWpz

bought Ṁ50 YES

Resolves YES!

https://time.com/7274542/colossal-dire-wolf/

sold Ṁ10 NO

@bens will depend on criteria, at the moment they're still gene editing existing animals

Related questions

Will a previously extinct animal species be successfully cloned and brought back to life before 2035?

Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)

Will the woolly mammoth be de-extincted before 2040?

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

When will an animal get de-extinct for the first time?

Which extinct species will be brought back to life by 2037?

What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?

Will a human clone be born before the end of 2035?

Will the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become extinct in the current century?

Will a healthy Northern White Rhino be born by end of year 2025?

Related questions

Will a previously extinct animal species be successfully cloned and brought back to life before 2035?

Which extinct species will be brought back to life by 2037?

Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)

What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?

Will the woolly mammoth be de-extincted before 2040?

Will a human clone be born before the end of 2035?

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

Will the White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) become extinct in the current century?

When will an animal get de-extinct for the first time?

Will a healthy Northern White Rhino be born by end of year 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules