What government positions will Kamala Harris hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?
What government positions will Kamala Harris hold for any length of time in the rest of her life?
Plus
39
Ṁ35482051
39%
Governor
26%
Attorney General
13%
Cabinet Secretary
12%
Mayor
12%
Senator
11%
Representative
11%
President
11%
Ambassador
11%
Leader/Whip/Speaker (majority or minority)
9%
Chief of Staff
9%
Supreme Court Justice
Starting from this market's creation. Terms used refer to the United States presidency, congress, states, and so on in whatever their most obvious normal meaning is. Note that this market refers to time served, not elections won or appointments attempted.
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answered12mo
Leader/Whip/Speaker (majority or minority)
answered12mo
Cabinet Secretary
Does this include Cabinet positions that do not have Secretary in the name, like Director of National Intelligence and Attorney General? (In this case, the vice presidency is also technically a cabinet position.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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