Conditional on LK-99 replicating, will a RTSC be used commercially by 2026?

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If there is a significant commercial use of LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor, then this resolves YES. If the original market for LK-99 replication resolves NO, then this resolves N/A.

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I expect it will be but 2026 seems too soon. It’s hard to make

@Ansel 2.5 years seems enough to figure out the manufacturing, assuming it’s real.

@Ansel It seems pretty likely to me that better materials in the same class (not just a different dopant) will be discovered and LK-99 won't make it to market.

I think other superconductors that are used commercially are generally not the first of their type discovered.

@AMS Note the description allows for slight modifications to the recipe.

@Paul Hmm, good point. I'm not sure how broadly "slight modification" is intended, selling my NO for now.

Would be nice to get clarification on whether e.g. different cuprate SCs count as slight modifications.

predictedYES 1y

@AMS I updated the description.

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