Will a Wall St firm use prediction markets as an investment vehicle by July 14 2025
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i find it spooky that everyone here seems to be assuming that market making amounts to using the underlying as an investment vehicle - do Optiver use options as an investment vehicle, for example? surely not

@Waffloid Sig and Kalshi Trading make directional bets in addition to market making, and should both count.

@Joshua sure -- but consider the analogy with optiver, they also make directional bets through market-making, does that change your opinion on whether they use options as an investment vehicle?

@Waffloid It's a pretty broad term, hard to say what OP meant but I think so yeah

Creator has been inactive for a month, not sure we're going to get a clarification here

@ian Should we rip the Band-Aid off now?

  • Are we letting this play out 'til close?

  • Or should this be N/A'd on the spot?

Edit: No one answer feels great, but we are here now.

@ian I'd N/A if he doesn't come back from the email he'll get when it closes

opened a Ṁ26 YES at 54% order

This is such a volatile market.

sig are market makers on kalshi. is market making an investment vehicle?

@brod i dont think so: a market-maker provides liquidity and in return make money from the bid-ask spread -- this is fundamentally different from using it as an "investment vehicle", which in this context would look like holding capital in big betting positions in the hopes of being able to outperform the market

another point is that market makers are service providers, not investors - just because they play with money doesn't mean they are investing it!

@brod you put up capital in order to make number go up. It's not only an investment vehicle but it's one of the best in existence in terms of risk reward.

how is this market so old and so poorly defined this late in the game. i agree with @Quroe this should be like 90% or 10% unless there is currently none but high speculation one is about to announce...

@No_uh I did try to poke the market creator, but I never followed up with a mod ping. I don't know if that makes me responsible by proxy.

I have no skin in the game on this one.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@Quroe of course it doesnt make you responsible lol. its not your market! (edit: buying a lil bit in this cause given lower comments that logic makes sense and seems likely to cause YES resolution). but i understand it may not qualify for whatever op has in mind

Define wall street firm

I propose:

  • is a trading firm

  • has a presence on Wall St

bought Ṁ100 YES

@jessald Seems fair

Given that this market ends in 2 days, almost all information should be in our reach.

The fact that this market is swinging wildly and is not >90% OR <10% seems to indicate that we don't all agree on what we're betting on. Or, alternatively, we're betting on how this market will be interpreted.

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 40% order

@PaulHan Do they need to host a market? Or only participate in one and hold a position within some financial portfolio?

@PaulHan Clarification boop?

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