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under the assumption Trump goes ahead with the 25% tariff on canadian imports, blindly an without remorse, as he's stated both canada and the US will likely be put into a recession. especially going from the current economic climate in both countries

What's the justification for resolving based on sahm rule, instead of actual fed recession declaration?

@asdfasdfEc6l The Sahm rule is closer to real-time, whereas IMU the fed declaration doesn't get officialized until many months (even years) afterward.

What is the argument for "no" here? Surely either 10% tariffs or mass deportations would have a high (3/4?) chance of leading to this, and these seem like the plans Trump is most committed too. Is there an assumption that someone will stop him?

@ColinAitkena211 the argument I hear about this is that Trump is all talk and won't actually do these things

@ColinAitkena211 An argument is that one president, regardless of macro-economic competency, is too small to send the world's biggest economy into a recession.

Note that, as mentioned in the description, I'll resolve this by looking at datapoints in 2025 and 2026. So the fact that the indicator is currently triggered does not guarantee anything.