Will the US evacuate its citizens from Taiwan before Dec 2027?
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5
แน1462028
23%
chance
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1W
1M
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This is intended to be an easily-resolved proxy for: will the US think an invasion of Taiwan is imminent?
Resolves YES if any of the following is true:
- US government organizes more than 5 flights to remove US citizens from Taiwan, which are reported as "evacuation" flights or similar.
- US government urges US citizens to leave Taiwan; subsequently, the total number of US citizens in Taiwan falls in half over a 6 month or shorter period.
Otherwise resolves NO in December 2027.
Judged by mainstream US media reports. There are currently ~11,000 US citizens in Taiwan, per Wikipedia.
I will not hold any exposure to this market (except during the first hour of trading.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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