Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?

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824

Ṁ2.5m

Apr 30

ALL

71%

Mark Carney (or other Liberal leader)

29%

Pierre Poilievre

0.1%

Other

Justin Trudeau

Jagmeet Singh

Yves-François Blanchet

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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LOESS curve of opinion polls of voters for the 2025 Canadian federal election campaign:

Dark mode for viewing pleasure:

Up-to-date as of April 9, 2025. 30-poll smoothing factor. Square root applied to sample sizes when weighting. Highlight ribbon is of 95% confidence interval of local regression standard error (not polling margin of error).

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Do American bettors understand coalition dynamics?
And how would the governor general act?

@jgyou there are only two relevant parties in this election, no coalition needed

@PeterNjeim Shocking level of Canadian politics knowledge on display.

dumb money back in, have your fill... wolves, devour this poivre steak sheep....

TRIPLE 69

Mainstreet Monday:
CPC 44
LPC 42

@FlipPidot Polls are fake, sir

Mainstreet specifically flipped its sign over the past week.

Nanos shows a big LPC advantage over the same period, though https://nanos.co/lpc-44-8-cpc-37-8-ndp-8-8-bq-5-5-gp-1-9-ppc-1-1-tracking-ending-april-13-2025/

If you aren't a sheep who believes in honeymoon polls, 3:1 odds on Pierre might seem like a good bet. But what if I said you can do twice that well betting on the Tumbles Financial Complex?

For a limited time only we at the Tumbles Financial Complex are offering to SEX YOUR MANA

https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba#ihtkmdbphl

@Tumbles sextuple*

If Carney wins, I think this will be the second time Manifold has ever gotten a 99-1 question wrong on such a widely traded market (the first being Jimmy Carter). Even after adjusting for... whatever the bias is called where you're quicker to remember surprising events than normal ones... I don't think Manifold has had 200 high-profile questions in which we gave such extreme odds.