By what time will Israel and Hamas, agree to a ceasefire?

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Ṁ1486

Jan 20

0.4%

By the end of July 2024

0.4%

By the end of August 2024

By the end of September 2024

0.8%

By the end of October 2024

33%

Will happen after US Elections (5 November 2024)

60%

Will happen after next US government is sworn in (January 20, 2025)

a ceasefire wont happen, war will only end when Hamas is defeated.

If the following events come to pass then, for the purpose of this question I will consider Israel victorious in Gaza without having to sign any more ceasefire agreements

Rocket attacks into Israel from Gaza stop for 2 months.
Attacks on military personnel and vehicles stop in Gaza for 2 months.
Entire senior leadership of Hamas is killed or captured.
All alive hostages are freed and remains of dead are returned.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇮🇱 Israel

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Gaza

#🇵🇸 Palestine

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Precise definition of the senior leadership of Hamas please?

@mods please resolve july 2024 to No

Not possible unfortunately, since this is a linked multiple-choice question. It's an oft-requested feature to allow resolving some answers in linked multiple choice markets to NO early, but it's not currently possible.

Yeah I learned that the hard way. Its actually a good feature, but it should be clearly explained when creating the market

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This is picking up

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