Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) refers to a level of artificial intelligence that surpasses the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills. Unlike Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which matches human capabilities, ASI exceeds them, demonstrating superior problem-solving and inventive skills, advanced learning and adaptive capabilities, and unparalleled reasoning and planning abilities. ASI embodies not only the ability to perform tasks that require human-like intelligence but also the capacity to achieve goals with efficiency and effectiveness far beyond human capabilities. It represents an evolution in AI, where machines are not just equal, but distinctly superior to the best human brains in every field, including scientific understanding, general knowledge, and emotional intelligence.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2031

Markets with the same criteria:

Will we get ASI before 2027?6%‌

Will we get ASI before 2028?8%‌

Will we get ASI before 2029?12%‌

Will we get ASI before 2030?18%‌

Will we get ASI before 2031?32%‌ (this question)

Will we get ASI before 2032?40%‌

Will we get ASI before 2033?50%‌

Will we get ASI before 2034?55%‌

Will we get ASI before 2035?60%‌

Will we get ASI before 2036?69%‌

Related markets:

Will we get AGI before 2025?NO‌

Will we get AGI before 2026?4%‌

Will we get AGI before 2027?15%‌

Will we get AGI before 2028?33%‌

Will we get AGI before 2029?50%‌

Will we get AGI before 2030?58%‌

Will we get AGI before 2031?62%‌

Will we get AGI before 2032?64%‌

Will we get AGI before 2033?69%‌

Will we get AGI before 2034?73%‌

Will we get AGI before 2035?74%‌

Will we get AGI before 2036?76%‌

Will we get AGI before 2037?77%‌

Will we get AGI before 2038?78%‌

Will we get AGI before 2039?79%‌

Will we get AGI before 2040?80%‌

Will we get AGI before 2041?81%‌

Will we get AGI before 2042?82%‌

Will we get AGI before 2043?82%‌

Will we get AGI before 2044?83%‌

Will we get AGI before 2045?84%‌

Will we get AGI before 2046?85%‌

Will we get AGI before 2047?85%‌

Will we get AGI before 2048?90%‌

Other questions for 2031:

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2031?17%‌

Will we discover alien life before 2031?13%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?76%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27%‌

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?92%‌

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?70%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2031?15%‌

Will a human walk on Mars before 2031?10%‌

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2031?16%‌

Full VR Brain Computer Interface before 2031?13%‌

Will AI extend English before 2031?53%‌

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?5%‌