Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2039 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).

Questions with the same criteria:

Will we get fusion reactors before 2025?1%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2026?4%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2027?6%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?16%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?20%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2030?20%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?27%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?34%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?36%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2034?42%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?50%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2036?53%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2037?55%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?62%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2039?65%‌ (this question)

Will we get fusion reactors before 2040?71%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2041?70%‌

Numeric market:

What year do we get fusion reactors?‌

Other reference points for fusion reactors:

Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?56%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?50%‌

Will we get a cure for cancer before we get fusion reactors?23%‌

Other questions for 2039:

Will we get AGI before 2039?78%‌

Will a human walk on Mars before 2039?50%‌

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?52%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2039?90%‌

Will we discover alien life before 2039?23%‌

Engineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven

The fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.