Will at least three of Trump's cabinet nominees fail?

𝕊725

Apr 1

51%

chance

ALL

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough.

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES.

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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22 Comments

56 Holders

148 Trades

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bought Ṁ400 NO

🤔

Coryn saying that the confirmation process will be difficult on Hegseth's family is a strong signal.

Should've bought more lol

Hi! I made a related market: https://manifold.markets/jb456/which-trump-cabinet-picks-will-with

If only the DEA counted!

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-pick-dea-administrator-withdraws-consideration-rcna182755

@FrederickNorris similar, for which it does count:

sold Ṁ387 NO

Hegseth fell to 35% on polymarket after

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/pete-hegseths-secret-history

bought Ṁ150 YES

If Gaetz counts, I'm assuming Hegseth does too.

A similar markets are here:

If people are moving to yes right now because of Kash Patel, please note that FBI Director does not count as a Cabinet position

YES holders: Which three are you expecting to fail? Gaetz, Gabbard, and Kennedy? So far, I haven't really seen any other nominations getting Republican pushback anywhere close to what we were seeing with Gaetz. I'm not confident I've even seen four Republicans "voicing concerns" yet!

@Marnix I'm a no holder at the moment, but based the questions below Hegseth is lower hanging fruit than Kennedy. Hmm, if Gaetz counts as 1 already, the probability of 3 or more seems to be higher than the current value of this question. Selling my no shares!

bought Ṁ250 YES

Does this count repeated failures to fill the same position separately?

Does it count all attempts across his administration, only ones before some date cutoff, only ones until a full cabinet is achieved, or what? (If his first administration is any guide, there will be a lot of turnover.)