Conditional on Trump imposing large tariffs in his first year, will the CPI-U for January 2026 be ≥332?
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48%
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Resolution criteria:
Resolves N/A if https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first resolves any way but YES.
Otherwise, resolves YES if CPI-U is 332 or higher for January 2026 according to official data found at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm or another official BLS source, and resolves NO if it is not.
Close date is provisional and may be extended if data is not available at close date or may be resolved early once data is available.
Background:
The CPI for October 2024 was 315.664. A CPI of 332 would mean a ~5.3% increase from October 2024 to January 2026, or ~4.12% annualized.
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