For each series, the respective market will resolve YES if:
A new game in the series is released specifically for Nintendo Switch 2.
A game releasing for Nintendo Switch and the Switch 2 being backwards compatible is NOT sufficient.
A game with specific versions for multiple consoles (like how Twilight Princess released for both GameCube and Wii, or third-party multiplatform games) IS sufficient.
A port or remaster of an existing game in the series is released on Nintendo Switch 2.
Emulations (such as Atari 50 or the Nintendo Switch Online service) are NOT sufficient.
All other markets resolve NO when Nintendo stops allowing games to be released both physically and digitally for Nintendo Switch 2, or when no games have officially released for Nintendo Switch 2 in over one year, whichever is earlier.
Whether a given game is part of a given series will be determined by how it is described by a consensus of reporting. If a market resolution seems likely to be controversial, I may conduct a Manifold poll to assist in determing the resolution.
Close date is provisional and may be adjusted.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there are separate builds for Switch 1 and Switch 2 (like Twilight Princess on GC and Wii), that is sufficient.
If there is extra functionality on Switch 2 that most backward-compatible games don't get (like DSi-enhanced software on DS games), that is sufficient.
Edited to remove: ̶"̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶S̶w̶i̶t̶c̶h̶ ̶2̶"̶ ̶r̶e̶f̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶'̶s̶ ̶r̶u̶m̶o̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶n̶e̶x̶t̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶s̶o̶l̶e̶,̶ ̶r̶e̶g̶a̶r̶d̶l̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶w̶h̶e̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶h̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶d̶o̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶N̶i̶n̶t̶e̶n̶d̶o̶ ̶S̶w̶i̶t̶c̶h̶.̶ ̶O̶n̶c̶e̶ ̶i̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶i̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶n̶n̶o̶u̶n̶c̶e̶d̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶m̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶ ̶m̶a̶y̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶e̶d̶i̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶c̶l̶a̶r̶i̶f̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶f̶e̶r̶e̶n̶c̶e̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶i̶t̶.̶
̶F̶o̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶i̶r̶s̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶r̶e̶e̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶s̶ ̶a̶f̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶m̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶ ̶c̶r̶e̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶o̶l̶u̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶c̶r̶i̶t̶e̶r̶i̶a̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶"̶d̶r̶a̶f̶t̶ ̶m̶o̶d̶e̶"̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶I̶ ̶r̶e̶s̶e̶r̶v̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶ ̶s̶m̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶s̶.̶
1,000
3.00@Kraalnaxx Would you count Donkey Kong Bananza as qualifying? I would say yes but you're the market creator so it's up to you
@Kraalnaxx if you think it counts, i'll count it
(i tend to take the opinions of option adders very seriously)
@Robincvgr Thanks for clarifying! Just to explain my process, the "Country" moniker has never been used in Japan (the latest game was just called "Donkey Kong: Tropical Freeze") and of course DK 64 never used the word. I was trying to indicate DK exclusively instead of a series like Mario vs Donkey Kong.
Median time between console releases is 6 years.
SNES - NES: 1990 - 1983 = 7 years
Nintendo 64 - SNES: 1996 - 1990 = 6 years
GameCube - Nintendo 64: 2001 - 1996 = 5 years
Wii - GameCube: 2006 - 2001 = 5 years
Wii U - Wii: 2012 - 2006 = 6 years
Switch - Wii U: 2017 - 2012 = 5 years
Switch 2 - Switch: 2025 - 2017 = 8 years
@Robincvgr anyone want to fill ❤ (nb: market was at 10% until just now)
So if F-Zero GX 2 comes out in 2026 and it's playable on both the Switch and Switch 2, does that count? What if it has extra functionality for Switch 2?
@asmith a game coming out for Switch and the Switch 2 being backwards compatible isn't sufficient
if there are separate builds for Switch 1 and 2 (like Twilight Princess on GC and Wii), that is sufficient
if there is extra functionality on Switch 2 that most backcompat games don't get (like DSi-enhanced software on DS games was), that is sufficient
@No_uh Some level of arbitrage with my pokemon pinball markets
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-there-be-a-new-pokemon-pinball-50780e142d7e
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-there-be-a-new-pokemon-pinball
FYI, I’d think this would include any entries in the same setting, regardless of what the game’s headline is. (They tend to release with various names: Pesterquest, Friendsim, etc.)
Where do emulated ports sit? Particularly if part of a collection. Eg the various sonic collections, or that three-in-one Mario collection of 64, Sunshine and Galaxy?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00