Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Plus
117
Ṁ71102029
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@NickAllen This should be lower than invasion of Taiwan. The way invasion of Taiwan happens is a weak US president allows it without firing a shot.
@JonathanRay the United States has this history of telling dictators they're clear to invade a neighbor and then smashing them when they do. Even if Biden greenlights a Taiwan invasion China would need a plan to deal with us responding militarily. Take a look at what lead Saddam to invade Kuwait.
Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
27% chance
Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033
19% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
34% chance
Will China really surpass US GDP by the 2030s?
33% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
41% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
34% chance
Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?
41% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
58% chance