Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025?
Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
49
Ṁ5505
Dec 31
20%
chance

Deep learning models can create content as text (e.g. GPT) and images (e.g. DALL-E), and may soon also generate audiovisual content.

Will there be any large-scale protests (>1000 people gathered in any physical location) about content generated by Deep Learning by 31st Dec 2025?

This could, for example, take the form of strikes about labour automation, protests against particular types of generated content, or protests about a news story which is fabricated by a deep learning model.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
2y

How does this market resolve if there is a large scale protest by a group with multiple demands, one of which is about AI but may be very minor. For example, if there is a protest about the 2024 election in which one of the candidates talk about AI, does that resolve the market?

predictedYES 2y

@JordanSchneider Good question, and hard to be clear/firm about fuzzy things like this. I think, roughly speaking, I'd probably make a judgement call about how much of the protest was about AI content (e.g. one of 3 main talking points -> 30%) and multiply that factor by the size of the protest.

2y

Betting based on my feeling here, but deep-learning generated audiovisual content doesn't strike me as the kind of thing people organize large-scale protests around. It doesn't physically hurt people or impede on bodily autonomy, and it doesn't directly involve the government or politics. While it might indeed have an impact on our information diet, it's hard to see that happening without the people who are consuming the content actually liking the new content. So it seems the main people who would be angry about this would be the unemployed content creators, but it's not clear to me that there would be enough in one place to meet the >1000 threshold.

predictedYES 2y

@BoltonBailey Have you been following ChatGPT? I could see the culture war evolving into the war over LLM output and culture war is a great way to get protests.

predictedNO 2y

@WarlockTiny I have been following ChatGPT, but it's hard for me to see how a culture war over LLMs could play out. I feel like some things in the ballpark of "tech stories in the news that people get mad about" could be

  1. AI in the Justice system

  2. Crypto scams

  3. Big tech companies harvesting data

Yet I'm not aware of any 1000 person protest in the last decade that I feel has been about any of these things per se.

predictedYES 2y

Two words.
AI Weapons

predictedNO 2y

@ZiquaftyNny Presumably this would not count, as murderbots do not "generate content". @SamBrown, would you confirm this?

predictedYES 2y

@BoltonBailey I wouldn't consider e.g. autonomous lethal weapons to count, by themselves. But if an LLM was outputting instructions on how to build weapons, that would.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules