Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
Will any AI model score above 95% on GRAB by the end of 2025?
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Ṁ163Dec 31
42%
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GRAB ("A Challenging GRaph Analysis Benchmark for Large Multimodal Models") focuses on the tasks human analysts might typically perform when interpreting figures. Such tasks include estimating the mean, intercepts or correlations of functions and data series and performing transforms.
Examples from the benchmark are shown below.
This market will resolve to "yes" if any model scores above 95% on the GRAB benchmark by the end of 2025 (11:59 PM UK time, 31st December, 2025).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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