What will be true of OpenAI's Orion model?
➕
Plus
40
Ṁ3466
Dec 7
84%
The preparedness scorecard for the model will not be above Medium risk for any category
77%
It will score better on SWE-Bench Verified than Claude 3.5 Sonnet (October version)
76%
It will score better on GPQA than o1-preview (73% pass@1)
67%
It will be able to output audio without calling another model
65%
It will be able to take video as input
52%
It will have a context window of >= 1 million tokens
38%
Once it is available to the public, a Manifold poll asking if it is better or worse than expected will find that it is better than expected
36%
It will be released before Claude 3.5 Opus or Claude 4
36%
It will be able to output images without calling another model
36%
It will be called GPT-5
27%
It will be released via ChatGPT before the full o1 model is released via ChatGPT (not o1-preview)

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bought Ṁ20 YES

What happens if it is not released by Jan 1?

bought Ṁ40 NO

@JoshYou I will extend the close date of this market until the release is announced.

If the release is delayed and it's unclear whether a released model is Orion, I'll wait for high quality reporting on whether or not a new model is Orion or not. If this never comes, every answer N/As.

bought Ṁ150 NO

https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/24/24278999/openai-plans-orion-ai-model-release-december

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