How low will S&P500 go in 2025?

Ṁ11k

Dec 31

Invalid contract

How low will it go?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the lowest value of S&P 500 index during regular trading hours. Resolution source will be Yahoo Finance, the lowest value in the 'Low' collumn, for the 2025 calendar year. At the time of creation of this market it is 5488.73. If the lowest value is between two ranges, the value will be rounded up.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

10 Comments

26 Holders

114 Trades

Sort by:

opened a Ṁ1,000 ??? at 25% order7d

The man cares about tariffs the way a little kid cares about ice cream.

He's wanted to do this for over 40 years.

The public markets have never shown his businesses the respect he believes they deserved.

Also I'm too chickenshit to buy SPY puts, so here I am.

@MichaelEdgar welp I guess he doesn't like tariffs that much.

bought Ṁ50 ???5d

@MichaelEdgar He backtracked?

@ScipioFabius I mean... CNBC has "reports" that Hassett says Trump is considering a 90-day pause on all countries except China.

So either he caved or we are about to get a Truth Social post that wipes us all out.

@MichaelEdgar now looking like it was fake. What a time to be alive. Sorry for the comment spam!

@MichaelEdgar oh no, I appreciate the comments, I missed this and was looking at S&P500 and wondering what the hell is going on.

reposted 8d

Uh oh.

answered9d

5400 - 5489

bought Ṁ250 ???9d

@ScipioFabius

can't resolve to this anymore (but this is dependent so this option can't resolve early, for other bettors)

@Ziddletwix Yep, very unfortunate this cant be resolved.

bought Ṁ1,250 ???8d

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

Invalid contract

Resolution Criteria

What is this?

Related questions

What is this?

Related questions