Sold my YES because of the AI 2027 paper which argues that the GDP break will be 2028 or after.

@MartinRandall My credence has also gone down since February.

How does this resolve if Trump’s tariffs can be tied directly to a single ChatGPT query?

Just to let everyone know (especially YES bettors), the recent drop in this market from around 40% to 30% where it is now, was (I believe) driven almost entirely by me and not based on any analysis of the actual state of AI development or economics. Rather, I just had a bit more spare mana and decided to bet more aggressively.

So if you're a YES bettor worrying that developments have turned against you, don't be afraid. Come and fill my orders.

(Unless there have been developments to change the underlying probability coincidentally at exactly the same time that I started being more assertive, but that seems unlikely.)

@Fion hmm. This didn't have the desired effect

What has counted as a visible break in the trend line historically? Do blips + corrections count? Candidates:

1. The great depression (1929)

2. The great recession (2008)

3. Covid pandemic (2020)

As good an operationalization of AGI as any

@SG Here's my worry,

Due to some massive deregulation, US GDP pops. Academia refuses to attribute that to Trump. Look for a (what's the opposite of a scapegoat?). Finds AI. I'm left arguing in the comments section instead of eating...

I might still bet no, economists generally love deregulation. But just imagine what Krugman will write...

@FergusArgyll Ah, want to create a market for that sub-question? We could also create a market for the more general question: Will there be a visible break in the US GDP trend line for any reason?

Here's a related market: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-prominent-rationalists-judge-t

@dreev

Will there be a visible break in the US GDP trend line for any reason?

Would be the perfect arb I'm looking for

@FergusArgyll Given the latest news, I'm more worried about a visible break in the trend line from an economic collapse.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm eternally optimistic about the US Economy and have bet accordingly since I joined this site. If you want to take the opposing side of that trade, here's a couple I'm betting on. (Worth noting, they don't seem to have moved against the US since "Liberation day")

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-china-overtake-the-usas-econom

https://manifold.markets/skibidist/will-the-economic-gap-between-the-u

@FergusArgyll If the US goes down, I'm sure we'll take the rest of the world along with us, so the gap might not change that much.

How do you feel about betting on whether there will be a recession this year?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm on NO. I bought them however when they were a little higher, I'm unsure if I'm willing to continue betting it down. I want to see how earnings season goes etc.

So; yeah I'm not super confident about the next 2 quarters

But worth remembering this market is by 2028, my confidence about the US Economy gets a lot stronger a year out

This is asking about a visible break in economic statistics in <3 years from now. Economic statistics typically have several months of lag time for collection and revision. So it seems that the visible break would need to start happening in the real economy by mid 2027 at the latest.

Then there is also the time required for economist consensus to form and become widely remarked upon. It can be hard to determine causation of macro trends in real time. Even if AI is having major effects, separating its impact from other factors (monetary policy, regulatory changes, global events, etc.) may take time.

Given these constraints, for this to resolve YES, we'd basically need to see dramatic AI-driven macroeconomic changes starting in the next 18-24 months that are so clear and pronounced that economists can quickly reach consensus about their cause.

It seems like this market has settled at basically the same level has the AI movie market:
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

I guess the two are somewhat correlated?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm interested by the fact that they're both quite a bit lower than this AGI one: https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346

If an AI can make a movie, does that make it AGI? The markets say maybe.

Given that humans can make movies, it seems to me that an AGI should be able to. The markets say otherwise!

I think this market (the trend line one) should be the lowest. If nothing else, because there's a lag between something happening and being able to see it in a trend line. But also there's lots of ways something can be cool and impressive without it revolutionising the economy immediately.

@Fion Hmm, good point. The creator for that one deleted his account though, so it's going to be up to the mods to decide what counts as AGI.

Anyone want to put up a large NO limit order at 42% or so? @traders

worse than market price but in case anyone is interested in bigger volume i have a 55% no limit order

@AdamK not sure what large means after the maninflation, but put up 5K at 42%

added 20k 'no' limit order .. there is more where it came from

@skibidist whats your reasoning? technological deflation? or just slow takeoff?

@elf The latter. My lived experience strongly indicates that the hype surrounding AI since the release of ChatGPT has vastly exceeded the actual progress. I think it's quite similar to the dot-com bubble. It will bear fruit eventually, but not anywhere as soon as (many) people think.

I don't think there has been any case where one technology alone caused a visible break in GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity since the industrial revolution. Most likely AI technology is already priced into current growth projections.

Pretty easy no. Expect to hit big here.

@JaundicedBaboon Please buy more NO

@AdamK I'm one of the biggest holders already. But just to spite you and because I'm 4 beers deep watching CFB playoffs, I will

@JaundicedBaboon Thanks! This is one of the best-priced markets for my marginal mana, so if people want to keep limit orders up, I'll fill them as I get more mana