Will more women than men be U.S. president in 2025 through 2052?
Will more women than men be U.S. president in 2025 through 2052?
Plus
25
Ṁ10372053
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
To resolve I will count all people who hold the office of president beginning February 2025 (corresponding to the 2024 election), up through 2052 (thus not including whoever is elected in 2052). Assuming nothing "exciting" happens, this counts whoever is elected in the years [2024,2028,2032,2036,2040,2044,2048]. If the counts are equal, this market resolves to 50%.
This market is partly inspired by: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/10/07/americans-are-more-worried-about-their-sons-than-their-daughters/amp/
Oct 30, 2:46pm: Will more women than men be president in 2025 through 2052? → Will more women than men be U.S. president in 2025 through 2052?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be a female U.S. president and a female U.S. vice president concurrently in office by 2050?
28% chance
Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?
76% chance
Will there be a female president of the US by the year 2040?
71% chance
Will a female be elected US president in 2032?
41% chance
Will the United States elect a woman president by 2030?
29% chance
Will the United States have a female president by May 2029?
29% chance
Will the US have a female or gender non-conforming president by 2033?
38% chance
Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?
54% chance
Will a female be elected US president in 2028?
27% chance
Will a female be elected US vice president in 2032?
45% chance