Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Scott Siskind (Scott Alexander, psychiatrist and writer of Astral Codex Ten, previously Slate Star Codex) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
1,000
3.00I wasn't personally that interested in this market, but I wanted to add a new wording example to this post of criteria experiments for scandal markets. I find "convictions" to be too meandering and unreliable, and people often settle long before it gets to that stage. For that reason, I think "charges" are a better general proxy for someone's criminality risk level.
Will Scott Alexander (Scott Siskind, psychiatrist and writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00