What will be the gap between the popular vote and the tipping point state in 2024?
Plus
25
Ṁ2988Jan 2
0.1%
D+6 or higher
0.4%
Between D+4 or D+6
4%
Between D+2 and D+4
95%
Between D+0 and D+2
0.4%
Between R+0 and R+2
0.1%
Between R+2 and R+4
0.1%
Between R+4 and R+6
0.1%
R+6 or higher
All calculations will exclude faithless electors. 269-269 electoral college scenarios will count for Republicans.
In 2016, this was D+2.8: Clinton won the pop vote by 2.1% and lost the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.7%.
In 2020, this was D+ 3.9%: Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% and won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@NeilG If you uniformly shift the popular vote across every state, which state decided the election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping-point_state
Related questions
Related questions
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
What will the tipping-point state be in the 2024 POTUS election?
In which state will the tipping point House seat be located in the 2024 US Election?
How large is the (optimal) voter margin for the US 2024 Presidential Election?
Will the Democratic candidate's popular vote exceed Republican candidate's popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
1% chance
Which state will have the closest margin of victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
Will the margin in the popular vote in the 2024 election be larger than any individual 3rd party's vote share?
99% chance
Will there be a split between the popular vote and the electoral college in 2024?
2% chance
Which pollster will be the most accurate in predicting the 2024 election results (popular vote)?
How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)