With current funding set to expire on Friday 1st March, Manifold users currently think there's something like an even chance of a US government shutdown this year with a high probability that it happens in the next few days if it does happen:

/MarcusAbramovitch/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-9878106a2b1c

/Joshua/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-3dbf060ae324

How long will the shutdown last?

There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:

• 35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)

• 21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)

• 16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)

How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?

Resolution criteria:

• As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st April and ends on 7th April will be counted as lasting for 7 day.

• This includes any shutdown which starts in 2024. It is possible that a short term funding resolution is passed in time to avoid a shutdown this week but there is a US government shutdown once it lapses later this year.

• This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2024. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.

• If a shutdown begins in 2024 and rolls into 2025, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2025.

• There is an "other" option if we get into the territory of the longest ever shutdown. If there is a shutdown and it drags on, I will split out further week-long options from there and everyone who has bet on "other" will receive the same level of payout in every new option.