Tesla just had the Q125 financial results and Electric is skeptical about the promises.
https://electrek.co/2025/04/22/here-are-all-crazy-claims-elon-musk-made-tesla-self-driving-today/
Which will turn true?
Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for Autonomous Ride-Sharing Service Launch:
Launch Requirement: The service must be launched and have at least one paying customer.
Driver Requirement: There must be no in-car driver; the service should rely on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology.
Teleoperation Clause: The service can have teleoperator intervention, but if it is using teleoperation more than 90% of the time (i.e., using FSD less than 10% of the time), it will be resolved as a No.
Ambiguity Clause: If the service appears autonomous but later is shown not to be autonomous at all, the resolution may be updated based on new information.
1,000
3.00I have decided to resolve
Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25 --> YES 85%
Because of the following reasons:
Launch correctly scheduled on time
No driver
Safety monitor in the passengers seat (hence not 100% YES but only 85%)
On a side note, I think the resolution mostly abides to the YES criteria because the robotaxis is indeed mostly autonomous. (We don't have clear data but it appears from videos indeed it's over 90% driving itself)
It would be nice to set some specific bar for the "autonomous ride-sharing service launch", e.g. will you rely on the company claiming it did launch it? Or will there be some (possibly soft) minimal criteria - like if it services a few fixed routes, will it count? If it turns out they have something like 2 teleoperators for every 3 vehicles, will it count?
@AIBear my bar is really low for the first one: if they launch a ride-sharing service and if at least one customer pays for it, I'll resolve yes. There should be no no in-car driver and it should be based on fsd - regardless on whether teleoperators intervene. If it's fully teleoperated (meaning that it's not using fsd more than 90% of the time), I'll resolve no. If it appears to be autonomous but turns out it was not at all, I may change the resolution according to the news
@SimoneRomeo What are your thoughts on the "safety monitor" in the car? To me it appears to go a bit midway through your resolution criteria: there is a person in the car and the system relies on it (so a reason to resolve NO), but it seems the car is driven most of the time by FSD (so a reason to resolve YES)