Resolves YES if by 2030, there is a country that includes most of current (2025) EU members. It could be called the United States of Europe, European Federation or anything else. The market resolves YES also if the country includes other non European states (eg. anything like a Western Federation) as long as most of current EU members join such country.
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Primary sources: Wikipedia’s List of sovereign states and reports from most major news outlets declaring the establishment of the new country.
Supporting evidence: A single national passport can be used as corroboration (not required on its own).
If unclear: Polls may be used as a last resort.
1,000
3.00@SimoneRomeo One passport sounds fine in my opinion.
One national soccer team would he the hardest criterion I can think of. On the other hand, the CIA factbook already lists the EU: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/european-union/
Maybe easiest to go by https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states
@Primer the Wikipedia page looks good and we can use it as one of the primary sources. Passports are also okay (even UK has one passport as the main one). Other sources can be the reports of most news outlets that declare the establishment of the new nation. We may resort to polls if this is really necessary. But hopefully it will be self clear by 2030.