Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?
Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?
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The market will resolve when the current conflict between Israel and Hamas ends and remains stable for at least 7 days without indication of re-igniting. The market resolves YES if any agreement (cease-fire, peace treaty, surrender terms, etc) which plays a major role in ending the conflict is led or organized by a country in the Middle East region (excluding Israel, as defined by Wikipedia). If many countries are involved, middle eastern countries must have weak majority and a country with leading international credit for the agreement must be middle eastern to resolve YES.
The market resolves NO if the war ends, with 7 days of stability, in any other way.
As reported by a concensus international news. I will not bet in this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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