Will an LLM with less than 10B parameters beat GPT4 by EOY 2025?
Will an LLM with less than 10B parameters beat GPT4 by EOY 2025?
resolved by
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15
Ṁ1812resolved Jan 10
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
How much juice is left in 10B parameters?
the original GPT4-0314 (ELO 1188)
judged by Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
current SoTA: Llama 3 8B instruct (1147)
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ47 | |
| 2 | Ṁ44 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ26 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
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bought Ṁ500 YES
@mods Resolves as YES.. The creator's account is deleted, but Gemini 1.5 Flash-8B easily clears the bar (ELO higher than 1188) with an ELO of 1212, see https://lmarena.ai/
bought Ṁ400 YES8mo
The market creator is banned, but it seems the YES resolution criterion has been met because Gemma-2-9B-it is at elo 1188, above GPT-4-0314 at 1886. However, one could argue it needs to be 1189 or higher because GPT-4-0314 was at 1188 when the market was created.
bought Ṁ10 YES11mo
Open source models have an inherent advantage in that they don't need to conform to censorship/"safety" policies, making them much more useful and thus getting them a higher ELO. Having to conform to policies is a major handicap for the larger closed-source models.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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