Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
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20
Ṁ1847Dec 31
80%
chance
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This market predicts whether any AI model will surpass the current best human competitor's ELO rating on Codeforces by the end of 2025. As of 31 December 2024, the current highest human ELO is 3985 and the current highest AI ELO is 2727 which was achieved by OpenAI's o3 model.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if any AI lab announces and verifies that their model has achieved a Codeforces ELO rating greater than 3985 by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, resolves NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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