Will Taylor Swift get married before.....?
➕
Plus
111
Ṁ12k
4000
96%
Taylor Swift goes to Space
93%
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
93%
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
91%
Taylor Swift dies
87%
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
85%
China full-scale invades Taiwan
83%
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
83%
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
83%
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
78%
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
76%
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
72%
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
70%
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
69%
Destiny is unbanned from Twitch
69%
The Buffalo Bills beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
68%
Travis Kelce Retires
68%
A United States presidential candidate endorsed by Taylor Swift gets elected
64%
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
63%
Travis Kelce wins a fourth Super Bowl
62%
A woman is president of the United States

Add fun answers! Would love the chronology of things that Manifold will think would happen, however to keep the market relatively organized:

I'll have Full Discretion in N/Aing answers that don't follow these Rules:

The Answer must be an event that can reasonably verifiably occur.

Aim to add answers that should start within 2%-98% as to make them interesting (this will especially be important when/if she does release a wedding date).

Answers can't be deterministic, approaching deterministic (i.e. the 2024-25 NFL Season starts), or have a known date of occurrence when added.

Answers shouldn't be repeats/variations of the verbiage of other answers, (i.e. I would N/A "The Washington Commanders clinch a playoff berth" as "The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth" is already there). This mostly applies to sports topics. Similar topics are allowed though as answers (i.e. NFL) as long as they don't overload the market (I'd probably warn in the comments). Additionally foreign policy questions may end up having similar wording (X invades Y) so this will probably lean towards leniency.

No answers that refer to either this market itself, or other answers (in singular or as a group), generically meta-answers.

Don't repeat these answers that already exist in other markets:

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-1c0bea571297

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-4d2cb3532798

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-c172eb997643

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-f1bb90be7133

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-bdee43f8f26a

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-0af0f6cfe988

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor

/strutheo/will-skate-4-release-before-taylor

Feel free to ask any questions (or if I N/A an answer you don't think is fair). I'll generally lean on the side of allowing things, especially if they are fun.

Banned Answer Topics

Meta-Answers

Other Clarifications

Answers occur from the start of this market (January 23rd 2024)

Answers that become Non-Achievable (i.e. Nate Silver dies so he can't win a WSOP bracelet) will not resolve "YES" until Taylor Swift marries.

If, Taylor Swift happens to never marry, before, um, she dies, the results can still resolve case by case to "NO" or "N/A" (in the case neither become achievable). If she announces she is choosing not to marry, that would not count as resolution.

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reposted

Using Taylor Swift to construct a future timeline

Related

I've added options for King Charles and Pope Francis losing their jobs.

The markets for which year those things will happen are here:

/SimonGrayson/in-which-year-will-king-charles-iii

/SimonGrayson/in-which-year-will-pope-francis-cea

What if the performance IS her wedding?

reposted

Sweet markets

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