Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in the Americas before 2030?
Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in the Americas before 2030?
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Plus
15
Ṁ938
2030
92%
chance

North or South America.

"Newly": Doesn't count any country that has already legalized it now or has set a future date for when it will be legal (like Estonia has). But any country that formalizes legalization at a future date, even if that date is after 2029, does count so long as the decision was locked in before 2030.

Must qualify in such a way that the country would change to dark blue on this Wikipedia map, though changes to that map are not required for this question to resolve YES.


Part of a series:

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Europe before 2030?YES

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Africa before 2030?48%

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Asia before 2030?YES

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized in any country in Oceania before 2030?60%

Will same-sex marriage be newly legalized for at least non-Muslims in any Muslim-majority country before 2030?60%

Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?32%

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Are British Overseas Territories and Aruba and Curaçao included in the question? If not, I don't understand why it's so high. (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recognition_of_same-sex_unions_in_the_Americas#Future_legislation )

predictedNO

@adssx Wow, good spot! Reality sure is messy 😅 Since they're free to establish their own legislation on these matters, I'm inclined to count them all, with the caveat that if their parent governments forced them to legalize it wouldn't count. Forced = decided the legality for them.

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