Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2) | Manifold

Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)

15

Ṁ4046

2030

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Prediction #2 from:
My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander

Update 2025-10-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will not be extended beyond the current close date (2030-12-31), even if ASI arrives later. The prediction requires the event to happen fairly soon as part of the AI 2027 scenario timeframe.

If resolution is unclear, the creator will defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation or resolve via poll.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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This is irrespective of when ASI arrives? if it arrives in 2035 does the market get extended?

@Bayesian I intend to defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation if he follows up on this. Otherwise, if I think it's unclear, I'll leave it to a poll.

But I'm not planning to extend these markets. I picked a generous close date in case the AI 2027 scenario doesn't happen exactly on schedule, but a key element of the prediction is that it needs to happen fairly soon.

bought Ṁ750 NO from 55% to 27%

bought Ṁ750 NO

Alright thanks

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