I'm only betting no because right now this market is at 70% while others with similar criteria are at 40 or below, and arbitrage is a thing you can do. I actually think 70% yes is about right. I'd bet higher than that actually, but a lot can happen in 6 years and I'm fairly risk averse.

@equinoxhq actually, disregard, the other ones I was thinking of end by the beginning of 2030. Dangit...

According to the CNBC, only 5.8% of all cars sold were EV accounting to only 800,400 cars; thus, to obtain at least 50% EV car sales, approximately 7 million cars would have to be sold in 2030. A 775% increase from this year. This seems unlikely as the infrastructure like charging stations would have to increase as well. There is currently a 5 EV to 1 Charger ratio, and even if we can double the efficiency to 10:1, we would need 700,000 charging stations which is greater than what Biden planned by 2030. Thus, I vote no by 2030.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/epa-proposes-auto-pollution-limits-to-aggressively-boost-ev-sales-.html

Biden proposes toughest auto emissions rules yet to dramatically boost EV sales

The EPA's proposed tailpipe emissions limits to boost electric vehicle sales represent the country's most aggressive climate regulation to date.