Will Volt be elected into the next Hamburg Parliament (2025)?

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Ṁ10k

Dec 31

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Background :

Hamburg state election 2025: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Hamburg_state_election

Volt Europa:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volt_Europa

Polling for Hamburg parliament:

https://politpro.eu/en/hamburg

The threshold for entering the Hamburg parliament is 5%

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if Volt receives at least one seat in the 2025 Hamburg state election.

It will resolve to NO if:

Volt participates but does not gain at least one seat in the 2025 Hamburg state election
Volt does not participate in the election
The election is cancelled or postponed beyond 2025

Hamburg: Polls and trends for the 2025 election

Polling for the 2025 election: The election trend for Hamburg | Polls & election results | Updated daily

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ2,255 NO

@Transparent https://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/B%C3%BCrgerschaftswahl_2025/

Resolves "no" right?

@VincentVega Yes I think it is exceedingly unlikely that volt will get in, however the final results are not out yet.

I am iffy about resolving this even though the final results are not out yet. I am keeping a watch tough and the final results will most likely be out soon.

bought Ṁ500 NO

No way volt will outperform the polls enough to actually get in. Wishing then all the best anyways.

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