How much of the popular vote will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
➕
Plus
282
Ṁ310k
2026
99%
More than 0.25% (what David Bergland won at the 1984 election)
99%
More than 0.38% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2004 election)
97%
More than 0.47% (what Ron Paul won at the 1988 election)
1.1%
More than 0.56% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2008 election)
1%
More than 0.99% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2012 election)
1.6%
More than 1.18% (what Jo Jorgensen won at the 2020 election)
0.5%
More than 1.42% (what John G. Schmitz won at the 1972 election)
0.7%
More than 2%
0.7%
More than 2.74% (what Ralph Nader won at the 2000 election)
0.4%
More than 3%
0.6%
More than 3.28% (what Gary Johnson won at the 2016 election)
0.7%
More than 4%
0.8%
More than 5%

This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about RFK's bid to the strongest third party runs in recent previous elections.

Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market.

Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Jo Jorgensen answer should not be taken as 1.18% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total she actually got according to the FEC (1,865,535/158,429,631=~1.1775164%) or Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate FEC reports.

Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
#Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
#Third Parties
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Going to make the resolution criteria Dave Leip in the interests of speedy resolution, sorry to the fans who wanted to wait 2 years

It's strange that this market put a 52% probability on the range 0.56% - 1%. Do we really feel that confident about that??

bought Ṁ70 NO

Incredible arbitrage opportunities on this question... So many markets, such wildly different numbers (especially for the 1% threshold). 10%? 35%? 47%?

Has anyone put there done a recent analysis that sums up the state-by-state conditions?

Related market.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-map-on-the-ballot-states/

bought Ṁ100 YES

I'm betting that he'll get 0.25% even if/after he drops out.

I think it depends whether he's still on the ballot. It would be hard for him to get that many write-in votes.

EDIT: this was posted before I knew how few states he was actually withdrawing from.

Okay I did a quick scan of https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/07/19/if-a-presidential-nominee-drops-out-what-happens-to-states-ballots/ and it looks like 6-7 states will have locked their ballots by Friday, but most states don't print until various dates in September, even some in October (despite some 45-day rule for overseas voters)

If a presidential nominee drops out, what happens to states’ ballots? • Iowa Capital Dispatch
What would happen if a presidential candidate withdrew from the race after ballots are printed? Most states point to the electoral college.

Cornel West version of the question!

Biden version of the question (though I didn't try to make all the fun comparison points):

@Tripping how does this resolve if he drops out? I guess you could still resolve it based on the amount of write-in votes he gets (if those numbers are released).

Using write-in votes seems like the right approach to me.

I'm just going to tally up the votes the FEC says he got, whether he drops out or not doesn't really matter to the question

Related Market:

bought Ṁ50 NO

polls tend to overrate third party candidates at this stage of the election

bought Ṁ50 NO

Why is the close date set 2 years later than expected? (2026)

I've juiced up the polls on these 2 if any NO bettors want to bite in for maximum Chomp:
https://manifold.markets/OllieG/how-many-state-ballots-will-robert
https://manifold.markets/GavenWolfgang/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-achieve-ba

Better odds for 2% here:
https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-a-third-party-candidate-receiv

bought Ṁ10 NO

Keep in mind that estimating slightly lower turnout than 2020 (~150 million votes), he will need over 3 million votes to get to this.

People are just answering 'Yes' to the polls because he has the last name Kennedy, but I can't see an anti-vaxx and anti-climate policy platform turning out 3 million Americans when many of those people will also be QAnon types who go to Trump.

@Athena

If you have voter turnout opinions, this might be a good market for you

Arbitrage:

reposted

how popular is RFK Jr.?

@shankypanky Latest from RCP polling averages:

@ChadCotty ooh thanks - good context :)

(that was also a question/comment to accompany a repost to followers so more people hopefully see the market)

@ChadCotty FPTP polls suffer from vote-splitting and don't show actual popularity

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