Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
➕
Plus
40
Ṁ9045
Jan 1
13%
chance

This excludes famine or epidemic/ pandemics.

In the past 30 years there have been aprox. 10 natural disaster events that have killed more than 50,000 people, including earthquakes and heat waves.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Crudely, this should be around 13% because 1 year out of 3 and there's 40% of the year left.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules