Will a new form of clean energy surpass solar in efficiency by 2030?
Basic
9
Ṁ5552030
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Efficiency will be measured by price per kwh. If price varies by location, I will use US prices.
I will interpret "new" to mean new technology. I'll be generous in what counts. Windmills won't count, but I would count bladeless wind turbines. I'll define clean by "does not release greenhouse gases." So yes, modular nuclear reactors are on the table.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the solar cell world efficiency record be beaten by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will a new renewable energy technology emerge by 2030 that surpasses the efficiency of current solar or wind?
20% chance
Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?
65% chance
What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?
Will solar become the primary source of electricity in the US before 2040?
73% chance
[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
75% chance
Will we see any commercial solar cells with an efficiency >30% by the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will the U.S. get 5% of its energy from solar before 2025?
16% chance
Will a significant breakthrough in renewable energy storage technology be announced within the next year?
28% chance
Will humanity get its hydrocarbon energy via solar-powered hydrocarbon synthesis in the next 20 years (ie by 2035)
35% chance