Will at least 500,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2024?
Plus
14
Ṁ16kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
If you're trading in this market, consider also helping me understand this market's likely biases: https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/how-much-do-traders-discount-my-mar
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
1 human died— Just south of US, in Mexico, and h5n2 (strain in poultry) instead of h5n1 ( strain circulating in dairy cows in US). No known exposure, but underlying medical issues.
https://time.com/6986026/mexico-death-tied-to-bird-flu-strain-never-before-seen-in-people/
Related questions
Related questions
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of H5N1 by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will more than 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 bird flu by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will at least 100,000 Americans die of bird flu in 2025?
4% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
3% chance
Will there be at least 1000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1 in the US in 2025?
6% chance
Will there be 500 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will there be at least 100,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
4% chance
Will there be 1000 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed human cases of H5N1 in the US in 2025?
7% chance
Will there be 10k or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2025?
5% chance