https://manifold.markets/SuperTaxGenius/will-any-state-have-more-than-30000

This market is just too vague to be tradeable as is. @Yoae can you give some indications of how you would resolve this?

• What counts as "5% of the total population"?

  • 5% of the population being affected at a particular instant?

  • what about a single hour?

  • a single day?

  • a single windstorm event?

  • a single wildfire season?

• What does "affecting" mean?

  • "I ded"?

  • "My house has no power"?

  • "My job has no power"?

  • "My Google has no power"?

  • "My stonks went down"?

  • "Nanny state tells me not to use my air conditioner"?

  • "I heard about it on the news"?

• What counts as a "power grid failure event"?

  • Unplanned blackout?

  • What if this isn't caused by the grid but by generators e.g. power plants simultaneously break?

  • Rolling blackouts?

  • Brownout - low voltage/frequency?

  • Advice not to use power?

  • Non-power delivery grid failure e.g. major wildfire evacuations?

  • Power grid goes bankrupt?

  • Electricity prices go up?

Do you wash your hands a lot?

Nothing ever happens