https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/23/gunmen-kill-police-priest-attacks-russia-dagestan

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/hundreds-of-protesters-clash-with-police-in-russian-republic-of-bashkortostan

@Zardoru It's been two protests, both apparently with participants in the four digits. However, this seems very far from meaning any real chance (or even majority desire!) to secede.

@PS (basically, I feel this market is @FennGreengrass saying yes and everybody else saying no)

"Russian republics declaring their independence"

I assume success is implied.

"Russia becoming a failed state, not controlling all or a large part of its territory"

Wikipedia says "a breakdown in political power, law enforcement, and civil society, leading to a state of near-anarchy". This seems like a somewhat high bar. Mere civil unrest or even rebellion wouldn't be enough.

@BenjaminIkuta Yes, success is implied. That means former republic actually runs its territory, even if not recognized by ONU. States not controlling all the territory they are supposed to rule are fairly common in the world.

@Zardoru Would a small, orderly secession qualify?

@BenjaminIkuta Size limit is set to three republics. An orderly secession would qualify.

@Zardoru I mean for the second part. What's "a large part"?

@BenjaminIkuta I don't want to define this condition too precisely. Size and population should count.

@Zardoru and "failed state", I take that to mean some inability to wield the levers of power internally, not just losing territory.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ukraine-have-full-control-over-5029fe862765

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-ukraine-have-full-control-over-5029fe862765

Will Ukraine have full control over Crimea by the end of 2030?

37% chance.

@BenjaminIkuta Crimea is out of scope for this market.

@Zardoru I know, but it's related. If Russia collapses internally, it'll probably lose Crimea too.

This would pretty crazy if it happened, wouldn't it?

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 203018%‌

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 203018%‌

Some more markets about this

@Odoacre What's the difference between these?

@BenjaminIkuta The first one is any kind of split. The second one is about a split on the republic lines.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/