Context: "On 19 October 2025, a robbery occurred at the Louvre in Paris, France in which part of the French Crown Jewels was stolen." (Wikipedia)
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if any perpetrators involved in the physical robbery of the Louvre on October 19th are apprehended by authorities before the start of December 25th (Paris time). Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolution details:
The fact that the police arrest/indict/etc someone does not prove they were the culprit. To handle this, after the police apprehend someone, I plan to wait up to a month. If there's no consensus of credible reporting implying that they were likely not the culprit, it will resolve YES.
Thus, I will not require conclusive proof that the police are correct to apprehend someone, more like "it's been a month and there isn't clear evidence against them being the culprit".
This market requires them to be apprehended before the start of Christmas day. Thus, if police announce an arrest on Dec 24, I might leave this market open for up to a month to confirm that they aren't exonerated before resolving YES (but that would still count).
As implied above: (1) this does not require all robbers to be apprehended (even a single arrest would count), but (2) there needs to be clear evidence that they were directly involved in the actual robbery itself. It does not count if the police arrest people who were accomplices but not involved in the robbery itself.
This can be a tricky market to define, so I'll answer questions as they come up in the comments (& traders beware of those ambiguities).
Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Apprehended" means taken into physical custody by legal authorities. A manhunt or identification of suspects without physical custody does NOT count for YES resolution. The authorities holding custody do not need to be French - a wide range of legal authorities would count.
Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve the market immediately after an arrest is announced. The market will remain open for up to a month (or less if evidence is overwhelming) to allow time for media reporting and to confirm the arrested person(s) are not exonerated. The fact that the market hasn't resolved yet does not imply the arrests are insufficient for resolution.
1,000
3.00from description:
The fact that the police arrest/indict/etc someone does not prove they were the culprit. To handle this, after the police apprehend someone, I plan to wait up to a month. If there's no consensus of credible reporting implying that they were likely not the culprit, it will resolve YES.
I.e. I am unlikely to resolve the market right away (and the fact that it hasn’t resolved yet does not imply anything about these arrests not being sufficient for resolution). I won’t necessarily be strict about waiting a whole month—if the evidence is overwhelming, earlier might be fine. But I do plan to leave the market open for a while so there’s time for the media to report more details.
both @wurt and @MichaelEdgar are new accounts, nothing conclusive but some very suspicious and suspect trading activity in tandem
@JeromeHPowell new? I've been on here over a year. I checked on the one market I bet on lately, I saw that the price is occasionally dipping, I place a limit bid to give liquidity to those who believe this resolves NO. Is that not allowed?
@JeromeHPowell what about this is suspicious? Be precise phrase or don't tag me and make a notification pop up on my phone.
@JeromeHPowell one is the thief, the other is the lead investigator. It's all part of the cat and mouse game...
@JulienWeeks as far as I can see, they are not the same markets as the resolution criteria are both different.
@vitamind They’re slightly different but if one resolves to yes it would be highly likely this one would do. The difference is that on Polymarket it doesn’t have to be a main perpetrator, but if an accomplice gets arrested chances are a perp would be found
@JulienWeeks do any of the clues reference pieces of art referring to obscure heretics from the late Middle Ages?
@TiredCliche not sure, they found dna though and a bunch of stuff that was left behind. Polymarket has this at 73% now
@JulienWeeks I don't believe in DNA. Get back to me if they find something involving gematria!!!
@JulienWeeks here's the actual source that isn't just ai rephrased stuff.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/25/louvre-detectives-believe-heist-inside-job/
@TiredCliche The thing is, if they have DNA it means that they can easily figure out whether or not a suspect did it, leading to a potential arrest. The fact that they found direct contact to the thieves makes catching them likely. Also, Polymarket and Kalshi both have this at >70% odds
The people who did it can just run away, and they already have. If it's anything like the UK, we have a police force, but almost all career criminals have never even spoken to the police, and for nearly all of them the same is true of all the other criminals they know. A joined up surveillance system with a central intelligence (no doesn't have to be AI) and reasonably complete coverage is a world and the best part of a century away from being implemented, if it's even on the table at all. Without it nearly all crime is just not even a remotely dangerous thing to build ones life around.
@alangrow counterpoint: look at this woman who cracked the Dali fake art ring in Italy. She looks like a high school boy who is really going to take JROTC seriously in sophomore year. But she cracked it!
I simply do not know enough about European phrenology to know who is serious police there.
