1.00The 82nd Golden Globes are scheduled for January 5th, 2025.
Unlike the Oscars, there are two categories for best picture—"Drama" and "Musical or Comedy".
The Golden Globe winners are chosen by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
In the case of a tie, this market resolves proportionally among all winners.
This market will close before the ceremony.
Check out the full Golden Globes dashboard.
1,0003.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 𝕊31.47 | |
| 2 | 𝕊15.43 | |
| 3 | 𝕊7.33 | |
| 4 | 𝕊3.83 | |
| 5 | 𝕊1.59 |
the description said:
This market will close before the ceremony.
and the closing date was set from the start. if people want a market with a different premise than this one they should make that market instead?
if you think the sweeps market for award ceremonies should be run differently, obviously you should talk to david not me as i don't run the sweeps markets. personally i do not expect david would be very amenable to the argument "it should be left open so whoever news trades fastest can take all the liquidity manifold paid for"—that seems like an obviously dumb use of manifold's subsidies (there is no predictive value in paying all the subsidies to the person who clicks fastest), but ultimately that's up to the website.
@Ziddletwix i mean this more for @Manifold for next time they make sweeps out of mana markets, ppl are going to expect some standardization
@strutheo sure but i would expect (hope?) this is an intentional choice—manifold has limited money to spend subsidizing markets, it seems unwise to spend it to subsidize news trading during an awards show? (where it'll all go to a single person who clicks fastest).
manifold could subsidize many markets like this that close before the event for the cost of a single one left open during the event. some events make news trading interesting (e.g. sports games) and that's worth it. an awards show is the simplest case where there's no real upside for manifold to pay its money subsidizing the fastest news clicker. i dunno how much david currently weighs this when he's deciding what to subsidize, but if i were advising manifold i'd say that's absolutely what they should do.
@Predictor The close time for this market was fixed and planned from the start. If you would like a market to exist with a different premise, I would encourage you to make that market yourself.
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Bet on the Oscar nominees! Likely 3-4 of these will be in the Best Picture lineup:
Which films will be nominated for Best Picture? (2025 Oscars)
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00